The war in Ukraine has created a growing challenge for countries surrounding the conflict zone. Unmanned aircraft have periodically entered foreign airspace, crashed or been discovered on the territory of neighbouring and nearby states. The incidents involve different types of drones and circumstances, and determining their origin and the reason they deviated from their routes is not always immediately possible.
Romania was among the first countries to repeatedly encounter the problem. Since 2023, drone debris has been discovered near the Romanian-Ukrainian border following Russian attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure along the Danube. By September 2025, 14 drones had reportedly fallen on Romanian territory in connection with such attacks.
On January 17, 2025, Romanian authorities again reported an airspace violation during an attack on Ukraine. A possible drone impact area was identified near Plauru, directly across the Danube from the Ukrainian city of Izmail.
Moldova has also recorded a series of similar incidents. During 2025, authorities repeatedly reported airspace violations during attacks on Ukraine, illustrating how easily the consequences of military operations can extend beyond the country’s borders.
On the night of September 9-10, 2025, Poland experienced one of the most serious incidents of this kind. Multiple drones entered Polish airspace during a large-scale Russian aerial attack on Ukraine. Polish and allied aircraft were scrambled and some of the drones were shot down. The incident led to increased surveillance and air-defence measures along NATO’s eastern flank.
Only a few days later, on September 13, 2025, Romania detected another drone in its airspace during a Russian attack on Ukraine. Two F-16 fighter jets tracked the aircraft for almost 50 minutes. The pilots were authorised to shoot it down if necessary but did not open fire because of the potential risk of collateral damage.
On November 25, 2025, Moldova reported six drones entering its airspace. One fell on the roof of a building near Florești, close to the Ukrainian border, while another continued towards Romania. Moldovan authorities opened an investigation.
During 2026, similar incidents became increasingly visible along the northern part of the region.
On March 23, 2026, a drone crashed near Lake Lavysas in Lithuania’s Varėna district. Assessments linked it to a Ukrainian long-range operation against infrastructure in Russia, with electronic interference considered among the possible explanations for its deviation from the intended route.
On March 25, two Ukrainian military drones entered Latvia and Estonia after crossing from Russian territory. In Estonia, one struck the chimney of the Auvere power station near the Russian border without causing injuries or disrupting the plant’s operations. Another crash-landed in Latvia.
Further incidents followed in the Baltic region. On May 7, drones again entered Latvian airspace from Russia. One exploded at an oil storage facility in Rēzekne, damaging four empty tanks. No casualties were reported.
Finland has also investigated cases of drones crossing its territory. Together with the incidents in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, they highlighted the increasing difficulties faced by countries located close to long-range drone operations.
Reports during 2026 indicated that some Ukrainian long-range drones aimed at targets in Russia had deviated into the airspace of Baltic and Nordic countries. Ukrainian officials have pointed to Russian electronic warfare and navigation interference as a possible factor in some cases.
Russian authorities have presented a different interpretation and have accused neighbouring NATO countries of facilitating Ukrainian operations. Those allegations have been rejected by the countries concerned.
The individual incidents therefore need to be assessed separately according to the available evidence rather than treated as having a single cause.
On August 8, 2026, another incident occurred in Bulgaria. A drone entered Bulgarian airspace from Romania and exploded at approximately 08:10 in a sunflower field near Kardam, close to the Bulgarian-Romanian border.
There were no deaths or injuries and no infrastructure was damaged. The location nevertheless attracted particular attention because of its proximity to facilities belonging to the Trans-Balkan gas pipeline.
On August 9, Bulgarian defence officials said their preliminary assessment indicated that the aircraft was likely a Maya-type decoy drone, a type used by Ukrainian forces. Bulgarian authorities said there was no evidence that the country had been deliberately targeted.
The incidents recorded in recent years do not all have the same origin or circumstances. Some have been associated with Russian attacks against Ukrainian targets, while others have involved Ukrainian long-range operations against targets inside Russia. In some cases, the origin of the aircraft has initially remained uncertain and required further technical investigation.
The broader challenge facing countries around Ukraine is that modern long-range drones can travel hundreds of kilometres and operate at low altitude, making them difficult to detect under certain conditions. Navigation failures, technical problems, electronic interference or deviations from a programmed route can result in an aircraft entering the airspace of a country that is not directly involved in the military operation.
The series of incidents in Romania, Poland, Moldova, the Baltic states, Finland and now Bulgaria illustrates how the growing use of long-range unmanned aircraft has expanded the geographical risks beyond the immediate combat zone.
Each incident still needs to be evaluated on the basis of its own evidence. Their increasing frequency, however, has made stray and unidentified drones a continuing airspace surveillance and security challenge for countries surrounding the war in Ukraine.
