The climate phenomenon El Niño is rapidly gaining strength and is expected to become one of the dominant drivers of global weather over the coming months, increasing the likelihood of heatwaves, floods, droughts and powerful storms across many parts of the world.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), El Niño has officially developed in the tropical Pacific Ocean and is forecast to strengthen significantly between July and September. Climate models show a high level of agreement that this year’s event could become a strong El Niño, increasing the chances of record-breaking temperatures and more frequent extreme weather. 0
El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean rise above normal levels, disrupting global atmospheric circulation. Although it forms thousands of kilometres away, its effects are felt worldwide, influencing rainfall patterns, temperatures and storm activity on nearly every continent. 1
Scientists warn that different regions will experience different impacts. Southern Europe could face periods of heavier rainfall, while northern Europe may become drier than average. Parts of South Asia and Australia are expected to receive less rainfall, increasing the risk of drought, whereas sections of the Americas could experience more intense storms and flooding. 2
The WMO also cautions that El Niño typically pushes global temperatures even higher by releasing additional heat stored in the Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere. Combined with long-term climate change, this could make 2026 and early 2027 among the warmest periods ever recorded, with increased risks of
Meteorologists emphasize that while El Niño is a natural climate cycle occurring every two to seven years, its effects are now amplified by global warming. Governments and emergency services are therefore being urged to strengthen preparedness measures, improve early warning systems and help vulnerable communities adapt to increasingly unpredictable weather conditions.
